Descending stratospheric warming

The major stratospheric warming that began in early January continues to descend toward the tropopause. Notice the two nodes in the temperature anomalies ... the first at the initial warming, near 2mb, the second around 5 days later around 20mb. Now we have a third and final node in development around 50 to 70mb.

What does this mean for the Northern Hemisphere? There could be a renewed period of easterly anomalies imposed on the background state of the polar vortex. At this time, the AO has recovered back toward neutral after dipping below -2SD ... well below 7-day model forecasts. Models have the AO continuing to rise toward +1SD by February 1st, however this latest node in the warming may to some extent suppress/delay the resurrection of  the polar vortex over the Arctic.